BUYING GUIDE.
In a record-setting 2008, video games appeared nearly recession-proof. But this year proved the pastime is as vulnerable to the economy as any other.Among 2009's highs and lows, the game-playing public grew: About two-thirds of Americans now play on traditional game systems, cellphones, websites or social networking sites, according to market trackers at The NPD Group. And six out of 10 U.S. households now own at least one console system, consulting firm Deloitte
GAME HUNTERS: Our favorite games of 2009.
To encourage buyers, Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony dropped their prices — Xbox 360 starts at $199, but its high-end model now sells for $299 (down from $399), PS3 sells for $299 (from $399), and Wii is $199 (from $249).
The Xbox 360 and PS3 added instant Netflix rentals beyond their growing libraries of on-demand TV episodes and movies. Coupled with DVD playback and the PS3's Blu-ray compatibility, "all of a sudden, there is a new value proposition for a family," Deloitte's Ed Moran says.
Despite the innovation, U.S. sales of systems and games probably will drop below 2008's record $21.3 billion, the first falloff since 2004. Consumers bought 12.2 million console systems in 2009 (through November), compared with 14.2 million for the same period in 2008, NPD says.
Looking back at other trends from 2009 and forward to 2010:
Big, big-screen games
When it came time to buy games for console systems, consumers were likely to opt for a known quantity like Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 or any number of games with Wii in the title. "There isn't a game on the top 10 that we wouldn't expect to see there," NPD's Anita Frazier says. "The last couple of years, the top 10 list has had at least a game or two that was relatively 'new.' "
"We are definitely seeing a consolidation of bigger hit titles cannibalizing more of the sales," says Jesse Divnich of research firm EEDAR. "The big games are getting bigger, and the small games are getting smaller."
The biggest game of the year, Modern Warfare 2, set several records: first-day sales of $310 million in the U.S. and U.K. alone — a single-day high for any entertainment property — and five-day worldwide sales of $550 million, surpassing Grand Theft Auto IV's mark of $500 million.
Modern Warfare 2 and several other titles made players feel as if they were watching — and participating in — a feature film. "People are always saying games are looking like movies. Well, now games are actually feeling like movies," says Geoff Keighley of Spike's GameTrailers TV.
Stories with depth
Games not only looked bigger, but they also told bigger, more complex stories. "The storytelling got really great," Keighley says. "Batman: Arkham Asylum and Uncharted set the high bar in terms of storytelling."
Several games due early next year — action-mystery BioShock 2 (Feb. 9, Xbox 360, PS3 and PC), thriller Heavy Rain (February, PS3) and action game God of War III (March, PS3) — are expected to continue the trend. Like Batman and PS3 game Uncharted 2, each mixes action, role-playing and puzzle elements.
Traditional distinctions between genres "are starting to disappear ... because these titles can encompass more angles than they ever did," says Scott Steinberg of DigitalTrends.com.
Sci-fi role-playing game Mass Effect 2 (Jan. 26, Xbox 360 and PC) has a "very convoluted narrative with a lot of morally ambiguous choices left open, (and) no two games will play alike," he says. "Now that developers have the power to tell that deep, more absorbing narrative and create a sense of personalization for every player, they are going to continue to tap into that."
Downloadable content also hit its stride, with action games such as 2008's Fallout 3 and Grand Theft Auto IV both getting new chapters for $10-$20. And since September, The Beatles: Rock Band has gotten three more albums, Sgt. Peppers' Lonely Hearts Club Band, Abbey Road and Rubber Soul ($12.50-$18). "In the past, downloadable content was viewed as nothing more than a map pack. This year, we saw developers do what amounts to episodic content," Keighley says.
Games in motion
While the Nintendo Wii's momentum slowed in 2009, Microsoft and Sony were developing their own motion controllers for next year. Microsoft's Project Natal has face-, voice- and gesture-recognizing sensors; prototypes of the PlayStation Motion Controller have shown a handheld wand and camera combination.
"I think the best chance this industry has at bringing back a lot of these consumers that were lost in '09 are these controls," Divnich says. "Of course, Nintendo is not going to take (their entry) lying down. I'm sure they have a few tricks up their sleeve. It's pretty clear with the Wii's success that consumers are addicted to motion control."
Music games' sour note
Sales in the music genre, popularized by Guitar Hero and Rock Band franchises, went off-key. From January to November 2008, sales were $1.19 billion; in 2009, the total was $620 million. That decline "is responsible for two-thirds of the overall decline in software sales thus far in 2009," says Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter.
The category may have "lost its newness or shininess," says Jesper Juul, author of The Casual Revolution: Reinventing Video Games and Their Players. "I guess The Beatles: Rock Band didn't quite make what they hoped it would, (but) music games as a genre just seem to be so inherently strong, they will continue to be around."
Casual games get serious
The big games get most of the attention and draw a few million players. Meanwhile, Farmville, which is played on Facebook, has more than 65 million players.
Could casual games on the Web and mobile devices (with tens of thousands of titles in the iPhone App Store) be affecting sales of console video games? Not nearly as much as the economy, says Deloitte's Moran. "It was conventional wisdom years back that in a recession, gaming would be immune. That obviously wasn't the case."
But the methods of playing video games will continue to broaden. "You are getting more of a rift between traditional (console) games and what people are actually playing in broad numbers," Juul says, with tens of millions playing casual online games.
"Video games are becoming normal and more like literature and film. You might have these connoisseurs who favor certain 'novels,' and they may be out of tune with what the broad population plays."
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