BUYING GUIDE.
The economy is scoring a hit on the video game industry, which until recently seemed recession-resistant. And game fans will pay the price come the holidays.Sales of video games and systems have seen double-digit percentage dives each of the last four months compared with 2008. Meanwhile, game publishers have delivered mostly disappointing financial reports. Even market leader Nintendo, which could do no wrong for more than two years, has had a weaker-than-expected fiscal quarter.
And several anticipated games, which were to have been released this fall, are being delayed, including Bayonetta, Bioshock 2, Dark Void, Splinter Cell Conviction, Singularity and Starcraft 2.
"Some publishers are delaying games in hopes the economy will improve," says Geoff Keighley, host of GameTrailers TV on Spike. "Other games just aren't finished. And many publishers are moving titles out of the holidays to avoid competition."
That competition includes a handful of blockbusters such as The Beatles: Rock Band (out Sept. 9) and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Nov. 11). Traditionally, publishers flood the fall release schedule so shelves are stocked for holiday shoppers. Nearly half of the industry's annual sales come in the fourth quarter. But there are signs that consumers might be buying fewer games.
"I've never seen so many games move out of the holiday season," Keighley says.
Two weeks ago, Capcom announced that its jetpack action game Dark Void would move from fall to early 2010. "We wanted to get Dark Void away from shipping the same day (Sept. 22) as Halo 3 ODST, obviously," says Capcom's Chris Kramer. That move "also gave our development team time to turn a great game into an amazing one."
Sega's postponement of action game Bayonetta from October to January is a nod to the challenges of launching a new property at a time when "all the big brands are coming out," says company president Mike Hayes. "The only downside is if (publishers) move everything to the first quarter next year, it might be too much for consumers and retailers."
Publishers are hoping that eventually the $250 Wii and $400 PS3 will cut their prices and stimulate sales. "Video game publishers are in a tough spot now," says Signal Hill analyst Todd Greenwald.
Even longtime hits are taking their lumps. EA Sports' NCAA Football 10 is selling slower than expected, and Madden NFL 10, out Friday, could get sacked.
Each of the past three years, Madden has sold fewer copies than the previous iteration, according to market tracking firm NPD Group. Consumers bought 7.6 million copies in 2007 and 5.8 million last year.
The 2009 models, however, will sell for 13% more than two years ago ($60 for the Xbox 360 and PS3 versions). "Any way you slice it, it's a powerhouse franchise," says NPD's Anita Frazier.
She also is leery of industry doomsaying. "If you look at this year's performance, it's still up over other years except for last year." That was a record-setting year with sales totaling $21 billion, driven by releases such Grand Theft Auto IV and Wii Fit.
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