BUYING GUIDE.
As if video-game players aren't already overtaxed with hits this fall —Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Assassin's Creed 2, Super Mario Bros. Wii, Left 4 Dead 2— the run of blockbusters will extend at least into spring, normally a quiet time for new releases.With anticipated titles including BioShock 2 and God of War III, "everyone is going to need a second job to pay for all the games they need to play, and of course everyone is going to have a second job and not be able to play all those games," says Game Informer magazine's Andy McNamara.
A strong string of releases is "a good thing for the industry, especially given the weak slate year-to-date," says Todd Greenwald, analyst with Signal Hill Capital Group in Baltimore. "The industry needs more triple-A games to re-energize the hard-core fan base, not to mention sales."
Typically, most high-profile games arrive for the holidays, followed by several months before the next wave. That gives those who gave or got a console as a gift (or gift cards) time to catch up.
But many games originally planned for release in the last half of this year were postponed, either for fine-tuning or to avoid the blockbuster Modern Warfare 2. That game reportedly topped Grand Theft Auto IV's record launch, with sales of $550 million in its first week.
Early 2010 is "unusually deep. There were some titles that just missed their mark this year and didn't quite get there," McNamara says. "It's a good thing, though (that) the video-game industry is picking quality over making the holiday time frame."
In 2010's expected hit parade:
•Mass Effect 2 (due Jan. 26, for Xbox 360 and PC, masseffect.bioware.com). Your decisions in this sci-fi action role-playing trilogy can affect how a galactic mystery plays out.
•Gran Turismo 5 (Feb. 2, for PS3, gran-turismo.com). The latest in the slick racing sim series takes the game online.
•BioShock 2 (Feb. 9, for Xbox 360, PS3 and PCs). Return to the not-quite-idyllic underwater utopia of Rapture.
•Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Conviction (Feb. 23, for Xbox 360, splintercell.com). Still stealthy but no longer an official agent, Sam Fisher continues to fight terrorism.
•Battlefield Bad Company 2 (March 2. for Xbox 360, PS3 and PC; battlefieldbadcompany2 .com). Sequel to acclaimed single-player and online combat game.
•God of War III (April 1, for PS3). Leading man Kratos continues to clash with the titans on Mount Olympus.
•Alan Wake (April 12, for Xbox 360). A Stephen King-like psychological thriller from the creators of Max Payne.
•Max Payne 3 (June 1, for Xbox 360, PS3 and PCs). The return of the bullet-timing cop/undercover operative.
•StarCraft II (date to be announced). Much anticipated sequel to the 1999 classic sci-fi strategy game.
Mass Effect 2 project director Casey Hudson is not worried about the competition: "Our biggest concern is ensuring that this enormous fan base is completely satisfied" by the game.
Adding drama to ME2, the second installment in a planned trilogy, is "the fact that your actions as a player get imported from one game to the next. You can affect the story line in major ways — not just within one game, but across the entire trilogy," Hudson says. "That kind of epic story experience and feature set has earned us a huge following."
Traditionally, the first half of the year is a slow one for video games, with the occasional major release such as GTAIV in April 2008. About 15 games released that season went on to sell more than 1 million copies, with Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii all selling more than 4 million.
Only 10 games in the first half of 2009 hit the million-mark. But 2010 looks to have as many as 20 million-selling games among its early releases, including other anticipated titles such as Mafia 2, Blur, Singularity, Dante's Inferno and Army of Two: The 40th Day.
While game sales could drop 9% in the second half of this year from 2008, sales in the first half of next year could rise 10% over 2009, says Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities. "Next year starts strong and stays strong," he says.
Next year, McNamara says, "is looking to be one of biggest in game history. I think it will compete with some of the classics."
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